Another killing of a a black man by police.Continue reading
This has become a complicated holiday for a large portion of USAn citizens. You spend your life learning that the Pilgrims and the native peoples celebrated the first harvest in the Pilgrims’ New World and then you find out that basically, the indigenous peoples mark this as the start of the genocide of their people. Which it is. So what’s a guy who’s 55 years old and has been having family meals on this day his whole life to do?
This is late, and no one reads this blog, but on the off-chance someone does — don’t listen to the polls. They don’t know what’s going to happen. That’s the TLDR, click for why.
The first thing you should know about Polls and Surveys is that every result ONLY REFLECTS THE OPINIONS OF THE KINDS OF PEOPLE WHO ANSWER POLLS AND SURVEYS.
I put that in caps because it is important. In a social media age, we like to think that since we throw our opinions into the ether, they are reflected in polls. But no. Polls can only claim accuracy over the people they actually talk to. And if you didn’t answer the phone when someone you didn’t recognize called or if you didn’t talk to the person with the clipboard, your opinion was not counted.
Now. Think about the kind of person who actually decides they can take the time to AND ALSO WANTS TO talk to a pollster. To answer a series of dry questions that the person asking can’t explain. THEY CAN’T EXPLAIN what the question means.
Leading to the second problem with polls. An d I should say here that most of my thoughts here were learned from Charles Seife’s Proofiness, if you want to read about all the other ways math is manipulated to make things seem true.
Second problem — if a question in a survey/poll is in anyway not clear, you will get bad answers. There are literal classes about how to ask survey questions because how do *you* interpret the word “could” or “would” or “can”? Yes, there are some questions that are clear. “Are Republicans a danger to Democracy in the US?” Clearly a YES or no answer. But since polls and surveys are mostly looking for opinions, there will be problems with answers.
And I’m not a statistics person, but that Margin of Error of 3% is bullshit. And it’s a bigger problem the fewer people you include in your poll/survey. Most poll takers keep going until they can say the MoE is 3% or under, but that means they stop asking in most cases.
Again, TL/DR — almost never trust polls.
Most of the time, this is what being a Philadelphia sports fan is about. Getting close.
Front office builds a team that *can* win a championship. In a certain set of circumstances. And they don’t. Because another team is more completely built.
So, it’s been a couple years again.
Not gonna lie – pandemic got me like, “Fuck. Shit. Fuck. Shit.” for 3 years. I mean, I got all the vaccinations. I wear a mask in most enclosed public spaces (convenience store, supermarket, state store – what most people call a liquor store, post office, Staples). Haven’t been sick at all in 3 years, and if it ain’t baroque, don’t fix it.
A not very business oriented billionaire is about to destroy Twitter, so maybe I can do something here, if I can still pick out journalist posts going forward.
This blog is probably going to be partly politics, partly woodworking, partly sports, partly TV and movies. I mean, it’s a Pub after all. Music, Art, maybe even Philosophy. Classics – not gonna lie, I follow more than a few Classics/mythology professors.
Let’s see if I can get myself to start posting at least once a day.
I mean, it says “An Attempt”.
I am not really sure people understand how bad this thing is for human beings.Continue reading
This really is exhausting.
At this point, I’m fairly certain it isn’t in the house. Wiping counters, tables, sink handles, cabinet handles, doorknobs, trash can lids, mailbox, every damn thing we order for over three weeks and no symptoms here.
And still — Every time something comes into the house, I worry. Going to get groceries is not good for my bad blood pressure. My spring allergies have me constantly feeling like I am at the edge of having a cold. I am keeping a list of places anyone in my family goes and places we get deliveries from so future anthropologists can tell how the virus spread around the world. Yes, it will spread around the world from here if I don’t keep this list.
I lie awake at night running over the symptoms wondering if I have the least little bit of one so I can lock myself in our guest room and try not to give it to my wife and kids. My life has become filled with dial soap and clorox wipes. And wondering when I can get more TP and PT.
Well this is a hell of a thing.
So many people, so many reports of how this was an “over there” thing. But there was something about it that didn’t ring true to me. I don’t mean to brag, but it really didn’t sit right with me.
First case in USA, in Washington state. I started buying things that would last a few weeks. Including toilet paper, to be honest. I mean, my family isn’t going to poop more than usual, but it doesn’t go bad. Got several rolls of paper towels. Bought some meats to freeze.
Recently got into Rancho Gordo beans. They really are very good. Have plenty of those to soak and put into meals. Bought a few cans of vegetables because the fresh ones may not last long, and I’m not overly calm about going out.
Right before my part of the state got shut down, I got my booze. Got my haircut. Luckily. I just got an email that Hair Cuttery has shut down. I wish I had tipped Jen more.
Basically, the only places I’ve been in the past two weeks is Acme, our supermarket, Wawa, my veterinarian – Rau, our state store, Hair Cuttery, and I voted in the special election in Bensalem.
That congregation of people outside the doors was the stupidest thing I’d seen until the video of the people on the beach in Florida.
This shit spreads like wild fire. We have no immunity — that’s what NOVEL means. And we have people going to beaches.
Maybe we don’t deserve to survive.